Cash planning for a small business: forecast from your real invoices and collections

November is a good month to plan the year ahead: prices, hires, investments. Most of that planning looks at how much you will sell and how much you will earn. Far less of it looks at when money will actually come in and go out, which is what decides whether you reach the end of the month comfortably.

A company can be profitable and still run out of cash. It happens when you collect at 60 days and pay at 30, when December brings both the Christmas bonus and the corporate income tax installment, or when a large client pays a month late. A cash plan lets you see it weeks ahead, while you can still do something about it.

What a cash plan is (and what it isn’t)

It is a table of the money you expect to collect and pay, week by week or month by month, starting from what you have in the bank today. It is not your budget and it is not your books: it doesn’t track when you earn or spend, but when you collect and pay.

An example. In November you issue an invoice for €10,000 plus €2,100 VAT, due in 60 days. For your sales, it counts in November; for your cash, the €12,100 arrives in January. And you pay those €2,100 of VAT with your fourth-quarter VAT settlement, due within the first thirty days of January, unless you use the cash accounting scheme for VAT (régimen especial del criterio de caja). If your client pays late, you may end up advancing the VAT on an invoice you haven’t collected yet.

Two horizons: 13 weeks and 12 months

The 13-week forecast

Thirteen weeks is a quarter, and it is the window in which you can still act: chase a payment, delay a purchase, negotiate with a supplier or arrange financing in time. You work it week by week and it rolls: every Monday you close last week, compare forecast with actual and add a new week at the end, so there are always thirteen ahead.

The 12-month view

With less detail and month by month, it shows the tight months of the year: quarterly taxes, bonus months, the seasonality of your sales and planned investments. This is the one to build now, in November, for all of 2027, and to review once a month.

Both use the same structure. Only the detail, the horizon and how often you review it change.

The inputs: where each number comes from

A forecast is only as good as its data. The good news is that almost all of it already exists: in your invoices, your contracts and the tax calendar.

Opening balance

The real money in all your accounts on the day you start. What the bank shows, not what should be there.

Issued invoices waiting to be collected

This is the most reliable part, because the invoices already exist. Enter each one at the amount that will actually reach your account: the total with VAT or IGIC, minus income tax (IRPF) withholding if it has any. And put it in the week you expect to collect it, not the week it falls due: if a client usually pays ten days late, plan for ten days late.

To know what is reasonable to expect, it helps to know the law. Between businesses in Spain, unless agreed otherwise, payment is due 30 calendar days after the goods or services are received, and even by agreement it cannot exceed 60 calendar days (article 4 of Ley 3/2004 on late payment). If a client pays late, the law entitles you to late-payment interest and a fixed €40 for collection costs (article 8).

Collections that aren’t invoices yet

Recurring client fees, accepted quotes not yet invoiced, and expected sales. The first two are almost certain; the third is not. Keep them on separate rows, so you can drop expected sales in the cautious scenario without touching the rest.

Salaries, Social Security and fixed costs

Salaries, rent, loan repayments, utilities, insurance, software and, if you are self-employed, your own monthly contribution. For Social Security, employee contributions for one month are paid within the following month, and the self-employed (autónomo) contribution within the same month (article 56 of the Social Security General Collection Regulation).

Don’t forget the extra salary payments. Spain’s Workers’ Statute gives employees two a year, one at Christmas and another in the month set by the collective agreement, unless the agreement spreads them across the twelve monthly salaries (article 31). If they aren’t spread out in your company, they are two payment peaks you need to see coming.

Suppliers

Supplier invoices waiting to be paid, in the week they fall due, plus purchases you already know you will make. If you have agreed installments with a supplier, enter each one separately.

The tax calendar

It is the input people forget most, and the one that weighs most in payment months. For a company or a self-employed person filing quarterly, the deadlines are set in the regulations:

Three caveats. If the last day falls on a Saturday, Sunday or public holiday, the deadline moves to the next business day, and if you pay by direct debit, the debit deadline ends a few days earlier. As of October 18, 2026, the official 2027 calendar has not been published yet: exact dates, with those adjustments, will appear in the Calendario del contribuyente (the official taxpayer calendar), where the 2026 one is already available. And if your company files VAT monthly, its deadlines are different.

If your company is in the Canary Islands, instead of VAT you file the quarterly IGIC self-assessment with the Canary Islands’ own tax administration, which publishes its deadlines on its official Canary Islands taxes website. And if you sell to or from the islands, read how to invoice with VAT or IGIC, because it changes which tax you charge and which you pay.

In the forecast, enter each tax in the week it falls due at its estimated amount: the VAT you charge minus the VAT you pay in the quarter, the withholding you have made and the installment. Your advisor can give you the estimate at the end of each month, and it is worth asking.

If you invoice with UTILIA OS, much of this is already in Finance: your invoices, which ones are issued and which are marked as paid, and supplier expenses, which come in with automatic reading of the invoice or receipt. When a client pays by card from their client portal, the invoice is marked as paid on its own, and with recurring billing, fees and subscriptions are invoiced every month without you touching anything (depending on your plan). The Finance summary shows income, expenses and VAT for the period, worked out from your invoices and expenses. See it on the invoicing page.

For now, you build the forecast itself in your spreadsheet: Treasury in UTILIA OS is coming soon, like accounting and taxes.

The template, row by row

You don’t need anything fancy. A spreadsheet with one column per week (thirteen) or per month (twelve) and these rows:

One trick that helps a lot: next to each past week, add a column with the actual figures. After a month you will know whether your forecast leans optimistic, and on which rows.

A simple example. You start the week with €18,000. You expect to collect two invoices worth €9,500 and to pay €6,000 to suppliers and €2,500 in fixed costs: net flow is €1,000 and you close the week at €19,000. Two weeks later the quarterly VAT falls due and the forecast drops to €11,000. If your minimum cushion is €12,000, you already know that week you need to bring a collection forward or move a payment.

Three scenarios: base, cautious and stressed

If the stressed scenario takes you below your cushion, you know what to negotiate before it happens: a credit line, invoice financing or a payment schedule with a supplier. Talking to your bank before you need to is much easier than doing it in a hurry.

Warning signs

• The closing balance dips below your cushion in any of the next thirteen weeks.
• Overdue invoices grow faster than sales. You are collecting worse, even if you sell more.
• One client accounts for a large share of the quarter’s collections. If they are late, everything is late.
• You pay taxes with money that was meant for something else. The VAT you collect isn’t yours: set it aside.
• Actuals always miss in the same direction. If you collect less than forecast every week, your forecast is optimistic.
• You use the credit line for fixed costs every month, not for a one-off dip.

How to keep it alive: a short session every Monday

A forecast that isn’t updated stops being useful within two weeks. The routine is short if you always do it the same way:

Step 1: Enter the real balance

Across all your accounts, on Monday morning.

Step 2: Compare last week

What was actually collected and paid, against the forecast. Note the difference and why.

Step 3: Move what didn’t arrive

Each outstanding collection, to the week you now expect it. And chase overdue invoices that same day.

Step 4: Add a week at the end

So there are always thirteen ahead. Once a month, review the twelve-month view as well.